← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 69% | 75% | 1.41 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.94 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 11% | 9% | 8.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 49' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 190.00 | 951.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1456.89 | 1915.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.89 | 3.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| league points | 14.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.63 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.69 |
| state index | -0.17 | 1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |