← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 46% | 50% | 2.11 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.46 | fair |
| Aves win | 25% | 25% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Derley · Aves |
| 59' | 🟨 | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Aves |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Chaves |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 79' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 555.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1540.65 | 1407.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.78 | -8.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |