← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Thu, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 53% | 46% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.74 | value: +15% |
| Belenenses win | 21% | 23% | 4.75 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 71' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Sousa · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 552.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1471.13 | 1498.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.64 | -25.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.63 | 27.63 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |