← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 54% | 55% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.56 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 19% | 22% | 5.13 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 59' | ⚽ | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 69' | 🟥 | Yuri Ribeiro · Rio Ave FC |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Moreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 71' | 🟨 | João Góis · Pacos Ferreira |
| 79' | ⚽ | Bruno Moreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rúben Ribeiro · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 2012.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1593.52 | 1478.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.93 | -32.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 24.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | -1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.48 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |