← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 37% | 51% | 2.62 | value: +34% |
| Chaves win | 32% | 25% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Chaves |
| 50' | ⚽ | Davidson · Chaves |
| 53' | 🟨 | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
| 55' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · Maritimo |
| 59' | 🟨 | Luís Martins · Maritimo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 83' | ⚽ | Filipe Oliveira · Maritimo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Diney Borges · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 1039.00 | 551.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1574.54 | 1527.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.37 | 34.00 |
| eye test v1 | -1.43 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.50 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| league points | 27.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.42 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |