← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 82% | 80% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.60 | value: +4% |
| Feirense win | 5% | 6% | 20.00 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
| 26' | ⚽ | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 29' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 31' | 🟨 | Alex Kakuba · Feirense |
| 38' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 52' | 🟨 | João Silva · Feirense |
| 63' | 🟨 | Hugo Seco · Feirense |
| 76' | ⚽ | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 84' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 84' | 🟥 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Sá · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 2 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 673.00 | 216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1474.40 | 1862.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.31 | 2.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 2.11 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.95 |
| state index | -0.50 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |