← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 48% | 42% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.39 | value: +10% |
| Moreirense FC win | 23% | 26% | 4.23 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Derley · Aves |
| 28' | 🟨 | Hicham Belkaroui · Moreirense FC |
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Derley · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 62' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alan Schons · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nildo Petrolina · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 2.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1418.59 | 1445.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.04 | 3.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| league points | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |