← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 88% | 80% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 16% | 10.80 | value: +76% |
| Maritimo win | 3% | 4% | 31.00 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Diego Reyes · FC Porto |
| 26' | ⚽ | Fábio Pacheco · Maritimo |
| 33' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 36' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · Maritimo |
| 39' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · Maritimo |
| 39' | 🟥 | João Gamboa · Maritimo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
| 78' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 200.00 | 1023.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1859.05 | 1578.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.67 | 23.68 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | -1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.86 |
| league points | 36.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.57 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.95 | — |
| state index | 1.70 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |