← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 70% | 78% | 1.40 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.81 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 10% | 8% | 9.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 26' | ⚽ | Eduardo Salvio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ljubomir Fejsa · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 69' | 🟨 | Heliardo · CD Tondela |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jardel · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 75' | ⚽ | Tyler Boyd · CD Tondela |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 2 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 747.00 | 930.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1468.63 | 1915.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.24 | 10.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.73 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 15.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.05 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.69 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.95 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |