← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 35% | 37% | 2.80 | fair |
| Chaves win | 34% | 27% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 37% | 3.17 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 11' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Chaves |
| 24' | 🟨 | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nadjack · Rio Ave FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
| 72' | ⚽ | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 74' | 🟥 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Cássio · Rio Ave FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rúben Ribeiro · Rio Ave FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 25 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 534.00 | 1995.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1527.49 | 1593.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.88 | 14.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 70.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 1.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |