← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 66% | 67% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.36 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 12% | 10% | 8.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Fábio Martins · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 88' | ⚽ | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ahmed Hassan · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 259.00 | 259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1649.72 | 1488.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.41 | -5.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.78 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 28.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |