← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 42% | 46% | 2.33 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.27 | fair |
| Aves win | 28% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Rafik Halliche · GD Estoril Praia |
| 42' | ⚽ | Lucas Evangelista · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Paulo Machado · Aves |
| 46' | 🟨 | Pedro Monteiro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 51' | ⚽ | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 52' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 73' | 🟨 | Cristian Arango · Aves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paulo Machado · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| coach days | 45.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1458.14 | 1426.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.95 | 13.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |