← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 37% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.99 | fair |
| Boavista win | 30% | 29% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Awer Mabil · Pacos Ferreira |
| 33' | 🟨 | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 37' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 52' | 🟨 | André Leão · Pacos Ferreira |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kuca · Boavista |
| 62' | ⚽ | Mateus · Boavista |
| 75' | ⚽ | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 23 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| coach days | 75.00 | 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1489.60 | 1528.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.83 | -15.47 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.87 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |