← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 44% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.26 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 26% | 22% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | João Góis · Pacos Ferreira |
| 44' | ⚽ | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mário Felgueiras · Pacos Ferreira |
| 81' | ⚽ | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 86' | 🟨 | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 88' | 🟥 | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Héctor Quiñones · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 253.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1490.32 | 1487.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.34 | -20.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |