← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 83% | 93% | 1.17 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 11% | 3% | 8.60 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 5% | 4% | 19.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 922.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1934.39 | 1478.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.79 | -36.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 30.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.99 | — |
| state index | 1.87 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |