← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 44% | 51% | 2.20 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.26 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 26% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Paulo Machado · Aves |
| 47' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Aves |
| 51' | ⚽ | Heliardo · CD Tondela |
| 63' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · Aves |
| 67' | 🟨 | Nick Ansell · CD Tondela |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fahd Moufi · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rodrigo · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 69.00 | 739.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1437.14 | 1457.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.07 | -12.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | -1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |