← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 52% | 60% | 1.88 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.44 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 20% | 18% | 4.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Koffi Kouao · Moreirense FC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ronaldo Peña · Moreirense FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Iago Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rafael Costa · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alfa Semedo · Moreirense FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 1986.00 | 160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1589.14 | 1437.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.54 | -25.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.73 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.60 |
| league points | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.27 | -1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.71 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |