← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 37% | 29% | 2.61 | fair |
| Feirense win | 32% | 42% | 3.01 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 33' | 🟨 | Tiago Gomes · Feirense |
| 40' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Aves |
| 69' | 🟥 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 80' | 🟨 | Salvador Agra · Aves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Federico Falcone · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 642.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1485.29 | 1423.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.43 | 10.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 56.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |