← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 42% | 45% | 2.34 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 47' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 55' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Rúben Ribeiro · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 3 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 732.00 | 1980.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1470.54 | 1576.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.46 | -9.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| league points | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | 1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |