← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 44% | 41% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.21 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 26% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Drausio · Maritimo |
| 50' | 🟨 | Hicham Belkaroui · Moreirense FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alfa Semedo · Moreirense FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Hicham Belkaroui · Moreirense FC |
| 70' | 🟥 | Hicham Belkaroui · Moreirense FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Erdem Şen · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 2 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 154.00 | 1007.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1434.97 | 1569.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.76 | 4.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.86 |
| league points | 7.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.12 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |