← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 41% | 48% | 2.38 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.08 | fair |
| Boavista win | 27% | 20% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Stephane Sparagna · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
| 70' | 🟨 | Rochinha · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Boavista |
| 85' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 519.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1518.50 | 1533.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.46 | 16.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |