← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 56% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.73 | fair |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 18% | 22% | 5.36 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Luisão · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 62' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 80' | 🟨 | Andrija Živković · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 82' | 🟨 | Andrija Živković · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 82' | 🟥 | Andrija Živković · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days |
| 183.00 |
| 914.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1854.59 | 1914.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.96 | 4.66 |
| eye test v1 | 1.58 | 1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 32.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 25.16 | 23.69 |
| state index | 1.71 | 1.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |