← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 52% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.73 | value: +6% |
| CD Tondela win | 21% | 20% | 4.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 77' | ⚽ | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 512.00 | 725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1452.09 | 1484.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.29 | 9.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.33 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -1.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.78 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -1.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |