← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 42% | 47% | 2.32 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 26% | 24% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Carraça · Boavista |
| 37' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 67' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 83' | 🟨 | Hicham Belkaroui · Moreirense FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Bruno Ramires · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 85.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1526.99 | 1441.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.21 | -21.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | — |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |