← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79% | 77% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 6.77 | fair |
| Aves win | 6% | 11% | 15.02 | value: +60% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ricardo Pereira · FC Porto |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 52' | 🟥 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 54' | 🟨 | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 63' | ⚽ | Vítor Gomes · Aves |
| 73' | 🟨 | Quim · Aves |
| 74' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 78' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Gauld · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 55.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1415.72 | 1862.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.16 | 16.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 1.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 9.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.13 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.16 |
| state index | -0.36 | 1.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |