← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 41% | 34% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.27 | value: +16% |
| Chaves win | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Robert Ahman-Persson · Belenenses |
| 23' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
| 46' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Chaves |
| 78' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Belenenses |
| 87' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 87' | 🟥 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 27 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| coach days | 237.00 | 511.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1503.75 | 1506.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.33 | 21.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |