← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 39% | 41% | 2.50 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 32% | 29% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jean Cleber · Maritimo |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jean Sony Alcenat · Feirense |
| 33' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 43' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ricardo Valente · Maritimo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Viktor Lundberg · Maritimo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Charles · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Briseño · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 614.00 | 980.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1501.71 | 1564.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.34 | -4.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.86 |
| league points | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 9.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |