← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 53% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 21% | 26% | 4.70 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 34' | ⚽ | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
| 35' | 🟨 | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
| 49' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Chaves |
| 61' | 🟨 | Patrao · Chaves |
| 68' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Chaves |
| 70' | ⚽ | João Góis · Pacos Ferreira |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mateus Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 78' | 🟨 | Higor Platiny · Chaves |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jorginho · Chaves |
| 86' | 🟨 | João Góis · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 492.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1493.66 | 1511.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.66 | 17.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |