← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 40% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.13 | value: +9% |
| Boavista win | 29% | 26% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | ⚽ | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
| 69' | ⚽ | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 76' | 🟨 | Stephane Sparagna · Boavista |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Murilo Freitas · CD Tondela |
| 78' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 80' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
| 85' | ⚽ | Murilo Freitas · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 704.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1474.26 | 1537.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.89 | 38.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.78 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.53 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |