← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 82% | 86% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 11% | 8.09 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 6% | 3% | 17.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | André Sousa · Belenenses |
| 42' | ⚽ | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 156.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1860.10 | 1506.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.70 | 43.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.16 | — |
| state index | 1.83 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |