← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 40% | 53% | 2.47 | value: +32% |
| Portimonense win | 31% | 24% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Dener · Portimonense |
| 13' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · Moreirense FC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Felipe Macedo · Portimonense |
| 79' | 🟨 | Alan Schons · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Bruno Ramires · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 126.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1461.74 | 1466.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.33 | 28.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 60.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| league points | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.88 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |