← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 37% | 44% | 2.66 | value: +17% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 34% | 29% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 86' | 🟨 | Chambos Kyriakou · GD Estoril Praia |
| 86' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 3.00 | 1952.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1469.55 | 1574.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -66.90 | -19.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| state index | -1.33 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |