← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 41% | 47% | 2.39 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 29% | 24% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (og) | Abner · Pacos Ferreira |
| 31' | 🟨 | Victor Andrade · GD Estoril Praia |
| 73' | 🟨 | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mateus Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 84' | 🟥 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 25 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 28.00 | 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1504.43 | 1477.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.75 | -80.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.27 | -1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |