← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 45% | 40% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 25% | 31% | 3.85 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 20' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 30' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 32' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 54' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ricardo Valente · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Éber Bessa · Maritimo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 87' | 🟨 | Wagner · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 972.00 | 697.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1554.56 | 1483.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.18 | 5.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -2.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -1.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |