← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 47% | 39% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 37% | 3.26 | value: +21% |
| Moreirense FC win | 23% | 24% | 4.29 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Bouba Saré · Belenenses |
| 44' | 🟨 | Filipe Chaby · Belenenses |
| 51' | ⚽ | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 63' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Roni · Belenenses |
| 88' | ⚽ | Roni · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Sousa · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| coach days | 210.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1493.61 | 1455.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.31 | -0.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |