← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 85% | 85% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 9.70 | value: +10% |
| Feirense win | 5% | 4% | 21.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jean Sony Alcenat · Feirense |
| 79' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Kakuba · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 879.00 |
| 605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1905.28 | 1503.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.54 | -35.22 |
| eye test v1 | 1.65 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.55 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.55 | — |
| state index | 1.50 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |