← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 44% | 37% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.28 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 26% | 32% | 3.73 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | — · Belenenses |
| 22' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 45' | 🟥 | Robert Ahman-Persson · Belenenses |
| 50' | 🟨 | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nick Ansell · CD Tondela |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nuno Tomas · Belenenses |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bouba Saré · Belenenses |
| 71' | ⚽ | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 77' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 79' | 🟨 | Cláudio Ramos · CD Tondela |
| 86' | ⚽ | Murilo Freitas · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 23 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 691.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1469.83 | 1507.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.87 | 31.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.25 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.71 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |