← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 68% | 75% | 1.44 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 21% | 15% | 4.67 | fair |
| Aves win | 12% | 10% | 8.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ryan Gauld · Aves |
| 50' | ⚽ | Haris Seferović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 59' | 🟨 | Eduardo Salvio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 76' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Defendi · Aves |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ljubomir Fejsa · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 12 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 21.00 | 874.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1388.22 | 1923.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.23 | -28.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.57 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.14 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.48 |
| state index | -0.32 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |