← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 88% | 87% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 10% | 11.00 | value: +9% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 3% | 3% | 30.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ricardo Pereira · FC Porto |
| 8' | ⚽ | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 18' | ⚽ | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 25' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 27' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · Pacos Ferreira |
| 33' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 46' | 🟨 | Francisco Afonso · Pacos Ferreira |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 62' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 64' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 72' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 142.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1849.78 | 1508.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.13 | 15.78 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 22.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.75 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.16 | — |
| state index | 1.67 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |