← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.35 | value: +13% |
| Feirense win | 28% | 24% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 15' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 20' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
| 20' | 🟨 | Lionn · Rio Ave FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Óscar Barreto · Rio Ave FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Bruno Teles · Rio Ave FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 36' | 🟥 | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 50' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bruno Teles · Rio Ave FC |
| 54' | 🟥 | Bruno Teles · Rio Ave FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | 🟥 | Marcão · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Antonio Briseño · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 599.00 | 1938.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1491.90 | 1590.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.12 | -6.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 0.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.67 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |