← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 41% | 45% | 2.38 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.11 | fair |
| Boavista win | 28% | 24% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Carraça · Boavista |
| 22' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 30' | 🟨 | Stephane Sparagna · Boavista |
| 33' | ⚽ | Rui Pedro · Boavista |
| 36' | 🟨 | Vagner · Boavista |
| 54' | 🟨 | Eduardo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 66' | 🟨 | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
| 82' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Brandão · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kuca · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 233.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1496.17 | 1524.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -64.48 | 25.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | -1.01 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |