← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 68% | 69% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.65 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 11% | 12% | 8.90 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 10' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Maritimo |
| 13' | 🟨 | Ljubomir Fejsa · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 49' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ricardo Valente · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days |
| 945.00 |
| 853.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1565.23 | 1909.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.32 | -19.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.77 |
| state index | 0.27 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |