← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 41% | 44% | 2.41 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.17 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 29% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Mohamed Abarhoun · Pacos Ferreira |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 38' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Rafael Costa · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | André Leão · Pacos Ferreira |
| 64' | ⚽ | Iago Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mateus Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 71' | 🟨 | Vasco Rocha · Pacos Ferreira |
| 74' | ⚽ | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 303.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1500.60 | 1469.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.44 | -10.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |