← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 45% | 50% | 2.16 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
| Feirense win | 24% | 20% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 24' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 38' | ⚽ | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jean Sony Alcenat · Feirense |
| 54' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Gomes · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 29.00 | 578.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1516.90 | 1499.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.27 | -14.40 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |