← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 47% | 57% | 2.06 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.44 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 24% | 19% | 4.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
| 19' | 🟥 | Júnior Pius · CD Tondela |
| 30' | ⚽ | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 35' | 🟨 | William · Chaves |
| 35' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 56' | 🟥 | Joãozinho · CD Tondela |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
| 87' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 455.00 | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1519.03 | 1484.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.63 | 1.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 62.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -2.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 26.31 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |