← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 35% | 34% | 2.76 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 34% | 33% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.14 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Diego Galo · Aves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bruno Teles · Rio Ave FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · Aves |
| 76' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Aves |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.08 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 235.00 | 1911.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1409.57 | 1588.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.79 | 8.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| league points | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 0.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |