← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 85% | 86% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 9.20 | value: +3% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 4% | 3% | 22.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 845.00 |
| 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1907.74 | 1502.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.61 | -1.67 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| league points | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.15 | — |
| state index | 1.49 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |