← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 88% | 88% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 7% | 11.25 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 4% | 4% | 27.00 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Felipe Macedo · Portimonense |
| 20' | ⚽ | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 23' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
| 26' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 36' | ⚽ | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
| 49' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 49' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 60' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 68' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 73' | ⚽ | Rúben Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 89' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 113.00 | 448.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1867.25 | 1449.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.51 | -8.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 63.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.55 |
| league points | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 25.73 |
| state index | 1.79 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |