← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 62% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.35 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 10% | 18% | 9.48 | value: +75% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Marcão · Rio Ave FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Óscar Barreto · Rio Ave FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Danilo Pereira · FC Porto |
| 57' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 65' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 67' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 77' | 🟨 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nuno Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Danilo Pereira · FC Porto |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bruno Teles · Rio Ave FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marcão · Rio Ave FC |
| 89' | 🟥 | Marcão · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 24 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 1904.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1593.92 | 1841.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.33 | 19.36 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.16 |
| state index | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |