← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 40% | 44% | 2.47 | value: +8% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 31% | 27% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 62' | 🟨 | — · Belenenses |
| 73' | ⚽ | Tiago Caeiro · Belenenses |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 78' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 78' | 🟥 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 83' | ⚽ | André Sousa · Belenenses |
| 84' | 🟨 | André Sousa · Belenenses |
| 85' | 🟨 | Muriel · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 169.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1463.03 | 1536.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.08 | 0.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |